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πŸ“ˆ Dwell Real Estate South Jersey 1Q19 Market Report

Anthony D'Alicandro

Anthony is a licensed Real Estate Broker in NJ & PA...

Anthony is a licensed Real Estate Broker in NJ & PA...

Apr 16 4 minutes read

Prices are UP....Number of Sales are DOWN

At a Glance, 1Q19 is DOWN 13.1% πŸ“ˆ in terms of Total Transactions Year over Year.   ...due largely to the fact that the total inventory of available homes continues to decline to historically low levels.  In addition, affordability combines with buyer frustration due to the low inventory to create the first stall the market has seen in over 4 years.

First Quarter Sales616781963973846
% Change y/o/y+12.0%+26.8%+23.3%+1.0%-13.1%
First Quarter Listings Taken21832322223520962158
% Change y/o/y+11.0%+6.4%-3.7%-6.2%+3.0%

Listings Sold versus Taken

Listings Sold versus Listings Taken in Q1 over the last 5 years

Total Yearly Residential Sales

Total Residential Sales during          Q1 over the last 5 years.

Median Sales Price

Median Residential Sale Price during Q1 over the past 5 years.

Median Sales Price

Median Sales Price saw it's 8th consecutive quarterly up tick in the 1st quarter of 2019, making it the highest it has been since 2015!  The Second Quarter of 2017 marked the first up tick in 5 years since the beginning of the Casino Closures and sharp increase in local unemployment.  

Affordability, the Big Conversation no one wants to have.

In the second quarter, we told you affordability remained at an all time high with Median Sale Price 28% LOWER than Median Sales Price in 2008!..... when interest rates were between 6.5% - 6.75%!

In terms of monthly payment.. that meant that the same house in the second quarter cost over 44% Less in Monthly Mortage payment. (*Principle and Interest based on 2008 Median Price & July, 2008 Interest Rate versus 2018 Median Sale Price & July 2018 Interest Rate.)

But with Median Sales Price holding steady quarter to quarter, and interest rates beginning to see sharper increases, the question is what will happen in 2019.

The Optimist view considers that even with rising interest rates, borrowers are still able to get money at rates 1/2 of that of recent home appreciation rates. Plenty of wealth building left in the housing market!

The 1st Quarter Result was an overall increase in Median Sale Price of 12.0% Year of Year.

YearNumber of First Quarter SalesMedian Sale Price% Change y/o/y

The Bank Owned Impact

Median sales price continues to be influenced by the high number of Bank Foreclosed sales.  However, the Number of Sales of Bank Owned Properties is steadily declining from the peak levels of 27% of all sales in Q1 of 2017.  A rather substantial increase in median sale price of bank owned property was realized for the third consecutive quarter. Median Sale Price of bank Owned Homes was UP 34% over 3 years ago!

While new foreclosure completions and REO listings/sales are maintain a high level.... the vast majority of these foreclosure completions initiated over 5+ years ago. 

Number of Bank Owned SalesPercentage of Total SalesMedian Sale Price of Bank OwnedMedian Sale Price of Non-Distressed

Bank Owned Sales

Banked Owned Sales represented 17.0% of the Total Sales in Q1 - 2019

Total Number of Sales

The Number of Bank Owned Sales Reached a Peak in 2017.

Median Sales Price

High competition from investors has resulted in closing the price gap.

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