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📈 Dwell Real Estate South Jersey 3Q18 Market Report

Anthony D'Alicandro

Anthony is a licensed Real Estate Broker in NJ & PA...

Anthony is a licensed Real Estate Broker in NJ & PA...

Oct 4 4 minutes read

At a Glance, 3Q18 is UP 3.5% 📈 in terms of Total Transactions Year over Year.   A modest gain despite strong demand and an improving economic momentum... due largely to the fact that the total inventory of available homes is currently at historically low levels.  The number of Listings Taken was closely consistent with the third quarter of 2017, a decline from previous years.






2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Third Quarter Sales
7791014115112801326
% Change y/o/y
-5%+30%+13.5%+11%+3.5%
Third Quarter Listings Taken
22902162219920312035
% Change y/o/y
+26%-5%+2%-7.6%<1%


Median Sales Price

Median Sales Price saw it's 6th consecutive quarterly up tick in the 3rd quarter 2018!  The Second Quarter of 2017 marked the first up tick in 5 years since the beginning of the Casino Closures and sharp increase in local unemployment.  

Affordability, the Big Conversation no one wants to have.

In the second quarter, we told you affordability remained at an all time high with Median Sale Price 28% LOWER than Median Sales Price in 2008!..... when interest rates were between 6.5% - 6.75%!

In terms of monthly payment.. that meant that the same house in the second quarter cost over 44% Less in Monthly Mortage payment. (*Principle and Interest based on 2008 Median Price & July, 2008 Interest Rate versus 2018 Median Sale Price & July 2018 Interest Rate.)

But with Median Sales Price holding steady quarter to quarter, and interest rates beginning to see sharper increases, the question is what will happen in 2019.

The Optimist view considers that even with rising interest rates, borrowers are still able to get money at rates 1/2 of that of recent home appreciation rates. Plenty of wealth building left in the housing market!

The 3rd Quarter Result was an overall increase in Median Sale Price of 3% Year of Year.


Year
Number of Third Quarter Sales
Median Sale Price
% Change y/o/y
2018
1326$175,000+3%
2017
1280$170,000+6%
2016
1151$159,900-3%
2015
1014$165,000-10%
2014
779$184,000-5.6%
2013
821$195,000unch
2012
718$195,000unch
2011
607$195,000unch
2010
586$210,000-7%

 

The Bank Owned Impact

Median sales price continues to be influenced by the high number of Bank Foreclosed sales.  However, while the Number of Sales of Bank Owned Properties in 3Q18 held steady at the same high level for the second quarter of 2018....  but represents a sharp decline from the 27% of all sales in Q1 of 2017.  A rather substantial increase in median sale price of bank owned property was realized for the second consecutive quarter. Median Sale Price of bank Owned Homes was UP over 36% y/o/y!

While new foreclosure completions and REO listings/sales are maintain a high level.... the vast majority of these foreclosure completions initiated over 5+ years ago. 


Third
Quarter
Number of Bank Owned Sales
Percentage of Total Sales
Median Sale Price of Bank Owned
Median Sale Price of Non-Distressed
2018
25019%$112,575$222,000
2017
21017%$82,427$219,700
2016
20818%$62,252$217,000
2015
12812.6%$98,000$215,000
2014
425%$93,718$212,250
2013
283%$105,518$230,000
2012
344.7%$112,850$225,000
2011244%$129,000$225,000
2010
7512.7%$127,500$240,000


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